Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 35.472838 38.460067 41.759571 45.710436 50.362388 55.731101 62.495686
2025-09-07 30.627286 34.413479 38.879831 44.653617 52.107630 61.703002 75.553378
2025-09-14 27.789448 31.895635 36.937789 43.784422 53.196280 66.323934 87.476974
2025-09-21 25.247046 29.362696 34.546016 41.813466 52.238672 67.638804 94.652960
2025-09-28 23.862830 28.116523 33.610738 41.570982 53.516970 72.323108 108.821839
2025-10-05 23.685022 28.378064 34.642694 44.128188 59.291192 85.529067 145.660773
2025-10-12 22.541313 27.245325 33.635093 43.544881 59.961348 90.019857 166.945256
2025-10-19 21.832303 26.642628 33.303946 43.917872 62.243520 98.183450 204.812623
2025-10-26 21.520612 26.556634 33.690133 45.431654 66.775145 112.606598 282.801987
2025-11-02 20.904653 25.993964 33.316500 45.648536 68.923142 122.536239 366.819358
2025-11-09 19.889301 24.802623 31.913956 43.996082 67.136552 121.981724 396.259363
2025-11-16 18.995710 23.748498 30.663668 42.504958 65.486239 121.399560 427.909672
2025-11-23 18.662332 23.611162 30.992332 44.117037 71.313772 147.255993 930.516510
2025-11-30 17.756932 22.593296 29.893128 43.115498 71.443841 156.787327 1686.875488
2025-12-07 16.990352 21.730801 28.965081 42.297888 71.792717 167.784433 4917.357030
2025-12-14 16.093979 20.623825 27.564892 40.440272 69.271130 166.005361 11038.462020
2025-12-21 15.587427 20.082278 27.049010 40.211478 70.737942 183.053707 NaN
2025-12-28 15.595421 20.324771 27.838384 42.621480 79.795104 253.754937 NaN
2026-01-04 15.098522 19.751664 27.205040 42.072302 80.539278 278.772344 NaN
2026-01-11 14.784295 19.449751 27.015153 42.423507 84.103477 337.682469 NaN
2026-01-18 14.652565 19.428902 27.309386 43.847518 91.666599 482.972602 NaN
2026-01-25 14.351340 19.118627 27.065997 44.051362 95.282622 623.033142 NaN
2026-02-01 13.826444 18.423874 26.092246 42.497133 92.090035 609.965132 NaN